The Oracle has spoken

A number of notable bloggers out there have recently posted their predictions as to what 2007 will hold for this whole crazy Interweb-type thingy.

Now, my New Year’s Eve clairvoyance is typically limited to picking 10 celebrities most likely to shuffle off their mortal coils over the following 12 months, but (as my lawyer will tell you) I’ll try anything once. Better late than never, as my (late) Grandfather used to say, so here it is – behold my predictions for 2007…

  1. Theresa Gattung will be fired, and replaced with a man in his late 50’s or early 60’s. First thing he does is pull the plug on Ferrit, earning plaudits for a no-brainer call that should have been made ages ago.
  2. More big brands will abandon big-budget TV production altogether, in favour of targeted interactive marketing. My pick for first up: Air New Zealand.
  3. At least one new (or existing, but currently inconsequential) non-tech company in NZ will come from nowhere to achieve dominance in their sector, largely due to a well-conceived and executed interactive strategy. Their old-school competitors will be astonished and yet still do nothing.
  4. Google will acquire or form a close strategic alliance with or one of the other online digital image services (not Flickr). Google will then integrate the image service and YouTube’s features with Blogger’s offering so that users can access all of those tools via a single interface.
  5. A substantial ‘adjustment’ will take place in tech stocks. That’s right kids, we’re headed for another crash (we had them in ’87 and ’97, why not ’07?). Google will take a big hit, down to $400 US or below.
  6. The Venice Project, launching in March, will change broadcast television – content and advertising – forever.
  7. The next evolution in Web 2.0 / CGM will be in content filtering / selection, rather than creation of or access to content. (We have access to content now – the issue is gaining access to content we want to see without having to browse around all day looking for stuff we like). Several new media brands will rise as a result of this, using a format that is essentially a blog with a steady stream of audio, video, text and image content selected from all over the Web. Kind of a cross between, YouTube and SKY TV. Think of them as uber-blogs (kinda).
  8. The big new development of the year will be a new revenue model for content creators. Creators of new CGM content – however lame or amateurish it might appear – will receive a revenue share from advertisers – this will also include bonuses for product placement (e.g. create popular CGM containing Mountain Dew and you’ll get some cash from PepsiCo). In essence, the content creator will be getting a cut of the ad rev share that currently goes exclusively to the publisher (e.g. the blogger).
  9. TradeMe will face a backlash from its user-base as Fairfax continues to meddle with its service offering and revenue model. Either Zillion or a new entrant will experience significant gains as a result – in terms of user numbers, traffic and revenue – but will not seriously threaten TradeMe’s position… yet.
  10. 2007 will see the launch of a GOOD (useful and intelligent) search engine / portal focusing entirely on CGM.

Ps. Useless buggers at / Motorola NZ still haven’t sorted out my crappy phone. As a matter of fact, now they’ve lost it. Any Telecom Mobile reps reading this want to give me a call?


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